Classification Systems

Classification Systems

Crop Monitor for AMIS Classification System

The GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for AMIS crop classification scheme is designed to convey current crop conditions to non-agronomists in a terminology that is simple and has relatively universal meanings. Current crop conditions refer to the state of the crop during a given period in the growing season, relative to the average (i.e. typical) state over the previous five years as it relates to final expected yields. The five-year period was chosen to limit the effects of longer-term trends as a result of changes in factors such as seed varieties, and management practices. The four crop condition classes used are; exceptional, favourable, watch and poor.

Crop Condition Classes

	Condition	Definition
	Exceptional	Conditions are much better than average* at time of reporting. This label is used only during the grain-filling through harvest stages.
	Favourable	Conditions range from slightly below to slightly above average at reporting time.
	Watch	Conditions are not far from average but there is a potential risk to final yields. There is still time and possibility for the crop to recover to average conditions if the ground situation improves. This label is only used during the planting-early vegetative and the vegetative-reproductive stages.
	Poor	Crop conditions are well below average. Crop yields are likely to be 5% below average. This is only used when conditions are not likely to be able to recover, and impact on yields is likely.
	Out-of-Season	Crops are not currently planted or in development during this time.
	No data	No reliable source of data is available at this time.

* “Average” refers to the mean conditions over the most recent 5 years.

When crop conditions are identified as other-than-favourable, one or more climatic drivers are provided to indicate the cause of the abnormal crop conditions.

Drivers of Crop Conditions

	Driver	Definition
	Wet	Wetter than average (includes water logging and floods).
	Dry	Drier than average.
	Hot	Hotter than average.
	Cold	Cooler than average or frost damage.
	Extreme Events	Catch-all for all other climate risks (i.e. hurricane, typhoon, frost, hail, winter kill, wind damage, etc.). When this category is used the analyst will also specify the type of extreme event in the text.
	Delayed Onset	A late enough start to the season that it may impact full crop development.
	Socio-economic	Social or economic factors that impact crop conditions (i.e. policy changes, agricultural subsidies, government intervention, etc.)
	Conflict	Armed conflict or civil unrest that is preventing the planting, working, or harvesting of the fields by the farmers.

Crop Monitor for Early Warning Classification System

Crop condition classes observed in the Crop Monitor for Early Warning system are the same as with the AMIS Crop Monitor, with a few adjustments. The “Poor” class threshold has been adjusted to be 10% -25% below-average due to the highly variable yields found in many early warning regions. Additionally, a “Failure” class has been added to designate when crop yields are expected to be more than 25% below-average.

Crop Condition Classes

	Condition	Definition
	Exceptional	Conditions are much better than average* at the time of reporting. This label is used only during the grain-filling through harvest stages.
	Favourable	Conditions range from slightly below to slightly above-average* at reporting time.
	Watch	Conditions are not far from average* but there is a potential risk to final yields. There is still time and possibility for the crop to recover to average conditions if the ground situation improves. This label is only used during the planting-early vegetative and the vegetative-reproductive stages.
	Poor	Crop conditions are well below average*. Crop yields are likely to be 10-25% below-average*. This is used when crops are not likely to recover, and impact on yields is likely.
	Failure	Crop conditions are extremely poor. Crop yields are likely to be 25% or more below average*.
	Out-of-Season	Crops are not currently planted or in development during this time.
	No data	No reliable source of data is available at this time.

* “Average” refers to the mean conditions over the most recent 5 years. In areas where conflict is a driver of crop conditions, current conditions are compared to the pre-conflict average rather than the average conditions over the past 5 years. In areas where conflict is protracted, based on expert analysis on a case by case basis, crop conditions will be compared to the average conditions over the past 5 years. 

Much like the Crop Monitor for AMIS classification system, drivers of crop conditions are provided for all conditions which are other-than-favourable. However, additional driver types are included in the Crop Monitor for Early Warning classification scheme in recognition of the significant differences in agricultural weather and practices in the Early Warning regions.

Drivers of Crop Conditions

	Driver	Definition
	Wet	Wetter than average (includes water logging and floods).
	Dry	Drier than average.
	Hot	Hotter than average.
	Cold	Cooler than average or frost damage.
	Extreme Events	This is a catch-all for all other climate hazards (i.e. hurricane, typhoon, frost, hail, winterkill, wind damage, etc.) When this category is used the analyst will also specify the type of extreme event in the text.
	Delayed Onset	A late enough start to the season that it may impact full crop development.
	Pest & Disease	Destructive insects, birds, animals, or plant disease.
	Socio-economic	Social or economic factors that impact crop conditions (i.e. policy changes, agricultural subsidies, government intervention, etc.)
	Conflict	Armed conflict or civil unrest that is preventing the planting, working, or harvesting of the fields by the farmers.

Crop Season Nomenclature

In countries that contain multiple cropping seasons for the same crop, the following chart identifies the national season name associated with each crop season within the Crop Monitor. Within the Crop Monitors the larger producing season (most recent 5 years) has been assigned to the first season.

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Socio-economic and Conflict Driver Guidelines

In an effort to standardize the use of the crop condition drivers across all reporting regions, the following information provides additional guidelines for when to apply the socio-economic and conflict drivers.

Socio-economic driver
The socio-economic driver should be applied if either or both of the following two conditions are met:

1. There is a significant and recent change in social or economic factors that may impact crop conditions (e.g., high inflation, input availability, policy changes, etc.) AND/OR
2. There are socio-economic challenges present that are related to a conflict and are likely to impact crop yield outcomes.

Please note:

• Socio-economic challenges that do not meet either of these two conditions can still be explained in the text but will not be included as a driver within the crop condition graphics.
• The use of the conflict driver by itself does not imply that there are no socio-economic issues present.
• The socio-economic driver may be applied throughout the season if it is appropriate and if it can be explained in the text.
• There may be some exceptions depending on the region and issue and at the discretion of the regional experts.

Conflict driver

Conflict can have significant impacts on agricultural production. For instance, farmers may not be able to access their fields throughout the season due to damage to productive lands, displacement, or security concerns. When field access is possible, economic downturn, supply chain disruptions, competition for limited resources, and damage to agricultural infrastructure and markets can limit the availability and affordability of inputs such as seeds, agrochemicals, tools, fuel, farm machinery, irrigation, and agricultural labour. Additionally, crops that do make it to maturity may be at risk of pre or post-harvest losses relating to the conflict. As a result, crops that are subject to such conditions will likely have reduced yields compared to average conditions.

Within the Crop Monitor reports, the conflict driver may be applied when the conflict and related impacts are likely to result in other than favourable crop yield outcomes. However, the use of the conflict driver and the associated crop condition classes differ across regions depending on the length and intensity of the conflict as outlined below:

1. Protracted conflict
   • The definition of “protracted conflict” is based on expert analysis and varies on a case-by-case basis.
   • The crop condition class will be evaluated based on how current yield expectations compare to the five-year average.
   • The conflict driver will not be applied as it is assumed the conflict has permanently shifted agricultural activities and crop production.
   • Countries that are currently considered to be facing “protracted conflict” include Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
2. Recent and ongoing conflict
   • The definition of “recent and ongoing conflict” is based on expert analysis and varies on a case-by-case basis.
   • The conflict driver will be applied throughout the season in affected regions.
   • The crop condition class will be evaluated based on how current yield expectations compare to the pre-conflict average.
   • In most cases, a “Watch” crop condition class will apply from planting through early harvesting, and conditions will be updated to “Poor” towards the end of harvesting.
   • Countries that are currently considered to be facing “recent and ongoing conflict” include areas of Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Niger, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.