EW CM report

In West Africa, harvesting of both main and second season cereals mostly finalized last month under favourable conditions, with the exception of conflict-affected regions, as this season’s weather outcomes were generally conducive to crop growth. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season rice finalized in February in Mali, and harvesting of second season rice is now underway in Mali and Mauritania under favourable conditions, except in the conflict-affected region of central Mali. Land preparation is underway for the 2024/25 cropping season, and planting will begin next month in Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic.

In the Middle East and North Africa, wheat continues to develop under mixed conditions for harvest from April. In North Africa, dry weather outcomes have impacted most west and central areas since the beginning of the season, and conditions have been downgraded to poor across most of Algeria and Morocco as crops have been affected by severe drought and are now unlikely to recover. Concern remains in northern areas of Morocco and Algeria and across Tunisia and Libya where dry conditions have impacted crops; however, in these areas, there is still time in the season for potential recovery. In Egypt, above-average temperatures and rainfall outcomes during the beginning of 2024 benefitted crop growth. Conditions remain favourable, and yields are relatively stable for the country as cereals are grown on irrigated fields along the Nile.

In the Middle East, agro-climatic conditions remain generally favourable as good rainfall outcomes from early in the season have been conducive for healthy crop development. In Iran, despite a strong rainfall deficit that affected the country in December and the southern half of the country in January, overall conditions are favourable, and crop biomass is average to above-average, particularly in the west and north and with the exception of Fars and Bushehr in the south. In Iraq and Syria, crop biomass is above-average. Additionally, in Syria and Libya, socio-economic challenges related to protracted conflict continue to influence production outcomes.

In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in Angola and Zambia while crops continue to develop in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini for harvest from March. Crop conditions are mixed as El Niño-induced dry and hot weather continues to impact much of the region with expanding areas of concern. Conditions have been downgraded to watch in eastern Angola, eastern Zambia, southeastern Zimbabwe, central Malawi, western Mozambique, central-northern South Africa, and Lesotho, and conditions have been downgraded to poor in most of Zimbabwe, central and western Zambia, southern Malawi, and central Mozambique. Following a prolonged dry spell in November, average to above-average rainfall from mid-December through early to mid-January prompted enhanced agricultural activities, including planting and replanting efforts, application of agricultural inputs, and weeding across north and central areas of the region. Conversely, a record dry spell of close to 40 days impacted several areas of the region during the middle of the cropping season, culminating in the lowest rainfall received for the late-January to February timeframe in the last 40 years and resulting in permanent crop wilting in parts of Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. The extreme drought situation is driven by both a considerable rainfall deficit as well as an increase in water demand, likely influenced by high temperatures, which is imposing severe water stress on crops. Forecast rainfall through March is expected to be below-average in most central and southern areas of the region with a likely severe negative impact to the remainder of the cropping season and little chance of recovery (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). In addition to near-term concerns for reduced crop production, there is also a concern for the potential of long-lasting impacts on seed availability in the region if widespread failure occurs.

In Angola, overall conditions are mixed with generally conducive weather outcomes in the west while the south and east have experienced below-average seasonal rainfall and deteriorating soil moisture, along with periods of localized flooding. In the southeast, erratic rainfall is affecting crop development in parts of Cuando Cubango and Cunene where localized flooding occurred in river valley areas. Crops are stunted in parts of eastern Huila, western Cuando Cubango, and southwestern Cunene, and final outcomes are uncertain. In Zambia, the government declared a natural disaster on February 29th regarding the El Niño induced drought crisis and expected impacts to agriculture following five consecutive weeks without rain during the critical development period (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). According to official estimates, the country has lost 1 million hectares out of 2.2 million hectares planted. In Zimbabwe, planting was completed later than normal in January due to a delayed rainfall onset, particularly in the west. Additionally, following beneficial rains from mid-December through January, a severe dry spell from the end of January through February impacted most regions, including the main producing northern areas, and resulted in crop wilting and severe water stress across much of the country. February and March are typically critical months for crop development, and yield potential has deteriorated across many areas due to a combination of the late planting activities, the severe dry spell, and above-average temperatures. Recovery is unlikely at this point as forecasts indicate below-average rains are expected to continue through March (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). Conversely, there are some areas where crop recovery is still possible, including in irrigated areas as well as in the Eastern Highlands where conditions are wetter. In central and southern Malawi, the country is experiencing an extended dry spell of over a month between January and February, resulting in severe moisture stress for crops in key developmental stages and likely crop losses before harvest. Crops in the south are unlikely to recover, and total production is expected to be below-average. In Mozambique, concern remains across much of the country due to a delayed rainfall onset followed by erratic rainfall distribution and a dry spell in February, particularly in the major producing centre where planting delays by up to three weeks occurred in Sofala and Zambezia provinces and where yields are expected to be below-average. Despite precipitation improvements in December and January, rainfall deficits are present in some areas, particularly in Zambezia, and high temperatures are further degrading conditions and leading to crop wilting. In the moderate producing north, conditions are mixed with concern in Cabo Delgado province where continued insecurity and localized flooding events have adversely impacted land and input access. In the minor producing south, below-average rainfall and a severe dry spell in February have impacted crop development. El Niño induced dry conditions are expected to continue through March in central and southern parts of the country, with likely negative impacts to cropping outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). In South Africa, conditions have been downgraded to watch in the main maize producing provinces of Free State, Mpumalanga, North West, and Eastern Cape as dry and hot weather outcomes since mid-January have negatively impacted maize crops, which are currently in the sensitive pollination and kernel development stages. Rainfall outcomes through the end of February will be critically important to prevent further damage; however, forecasts indicate hot and dry conditions are likely to continue through early March (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). Elsewhere, conditions remain generally favourable as wet conditions during December and early January have resulted in near-average cumulative rainfall amounts. In the Northern Cape where crops are irrigated, water resources are sufficient due to the wet conditions received over the interior. In Lesotho, conditions have been downgraded to watch as a result of mixed rainfall performance. Dry conditions in November 2023 were followed by heavy rainfall and strong winds from late December through early January that resulted in crop damage. Mid-February marked a return to below-average rainfall performance which is expected to continue into March. Cumulative rainfall amounts remain generally average despite low precipitation and high temperatures recorded in February, but there is concern regarding whether crops will reach maturity before the onset of frost. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion in the east while planting and development of second season maize is underway in the centre, southeast, and north, and conditions remain generally favourable despite recent erratic rainfall received in the north. In the east, protracted conflict continues to disrupt household access to cultivated areas for harvesting activities.

Regional Outlook: Extended dry spell in February severely impacted crops in the centre and north, and dry conditions are forecast to continue across most areas

Rainfall conditions in the last month- a critical time for crop development- were consistently below-average in central and southern parts of the region. Preliminary data indicate many central areas had one of the driest Februarys on record during a severe, lengthy dry spell that began in late January. February 2024 precipitation totals are less than 30% of average in northeastern Botswana, throughout Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, and west and southern Mozambique and are less than 60% of average in southeastern Angola, southern and central Zambia, northeastern Namibia, Botswana, central and southern Mozambique, southern Malawi, and southern, central, and northeastern South Africa (Figure 1-left). The seasonal precipitation anomaly generally shows the same dry patterns, with rainfall totals 45-70% of average in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and southern Malawi (Figure 1-middle-left). In addition to reduced rainfall, Crop Explorer indicates excessive heat during this period, further exacerbating the dry conditions by increasing atmospheric demand. Severe impacts have already been reported, particularly in previously high production zones in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Rainfed maize experienced delayed (and in some cases, failed) starts, followed by dry conditions in January-February, leading to severe moisture stress and potential for widespread crop failure. Zambia declared the drought as a national disaster and emergency on Feb. 29th.

Unfortunately, the 15-day (Figure 1-middle-right) and 3-month forecasts (Figure 1-right) indicate a high likelihood of continued below-normal conditions. During the first half of March, rainfall totals could be 50+ mm below-average in Zambia, and 25+ mm below-average in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, and Mozambique, worsening already dry conditions. The short-term forecast indicates wet, above-average rainfall is expected in Madagascar and to a lesser extent in parts of the northern coast of Mozambique (Figure 1-middle-right). The remainder of the season is likely to be drier-than-normal (Figure 1-right) and hotter-than-normal, according to WMO, NMME, and C3S probabilistic forecasts for March to May.

Figure 1. Recent rainfall anomaly, an outlook for October 1st to February 5th, a 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast, and a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast. The left and middle-left panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare current precipitation totals to the 1981-2022 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. These show the percent of average precipitation for Feb. 1st to 29th, 2024 (left), using CHIRPS Prelim for Feb. 1st to 28th, and for Oct. 1st to Mar. 15th (middle-left), using a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for Mar. 1st – Mar. 15th. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-right: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from February 28th, with values indicating how the forecast compares to the CHIRPS average for this period. Right: WMO probabilistic forecasts for MAM 2024 precipitation, based on models initialized in February, from the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

In Central and South Asia, Winter Wheat continues to develop under mixed conditions. There are prevailing dry concerns in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and southern Pakistan. Conversely, conditions have improved to favourable in Afghanistan due to recent rainfall improvement from storm activity, although cumulative seasonal precipitation remains slightly below-average for most areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 11). Spring Wheat planting is underway in Afghanistan, and planting will begin in March in Tajikistan. Forecasts near to above-average precipitation from late February through May in most areas could potentially result in improved Winter Wheat conditions and adequate soil moisture for Spring Wheat planting, but close monitoring is required (See Regional Outlook Pg. 11).

In Afghanistan, most provinces experienced delayed rainfall onset from the beginning of the season in October through late January, followed by average to above-average February precipitation that mitigated deficits and enhanced soil moisture levels in most areas, particularly in the northeast, centre, east, west, and central highlands, benefitting areas that were previously stressed (See Regional Outlook Pg. 11). While the recent rains have improved current vegetation conditions in most areas, the total area under Winter Wheat cultivation is below-average due to low precipitation and soil moisture levels from November 2023 through January 2024 that resulted in stress for both rainfed and irrigated standing crops. In the higher elevations of the north and northeast, the area under Winter Wheat cultivation has been reduced by at least 50 percent due to below-average precipitation during the planting stage. Overall, the success of the current crop seasons, including both rainfed wheat and downstream irrigated wheat, depends on the timeliness and coverage of precipitation outcomes during the coming months. Some southern areas of the northeast are expected to experience below-normal precipitation at the end of May, which will negatively impact rainfed wheat crops in all affected districts. Additionally, after four consecutive months of prolonged higher than average temperatures, the country experienced a cold snap from late February that will likely continue into early March. The switch to below-average temperatures will negatively impact standing crops, including wheat and orchard crops, and increases the risk of winterkill in areas where snow water volumes are currently reduced, leaving crops vulnerable to cold temperatures. However, temperatures are expected to return to warmer than normal levels during the coming weeks (See Regional Outlook Pg. XX). Planting of Spring Wheat is just beginning in some areas of the country under favourable conditions as the enhanced precipitation in February is allowing farmers to adequately prepare their fields. Areas in the northeast, north, and centre are still preparing their fields or are waiting for the snow to recede and soil moisture levels to improve, and planting activities are expected to be delayed by at least two weeks. Areas of the south and east have already completed planting. In Pakistan, adequate soil moisture levels at the beginning of the season in combination with high wheat flour prices resulted in an above-average sown area. Despite well below-average rainfall and high temperature outcomes during December and January, vegetation conditions in the major wheat producing areas remain favourable as crops are primarily irrigated. Conversely, the low rainfall amounts negatively impacted crop emergence and development in some minor producing rainfed areas, including northern Punjab, southwestern Balochistan, and southeastern Sindh, which together are known as the Barani areas and make up 10 percent of production. Cropping outcomes will depend on rainfall performance through April, which is forecast to be near to above-average (See Regional Outlook Pg. 11). Furthermore, increased rains are needed to replenish reservoirs that will provide irrigation for main season crops from May.

Regional Outlook: Below-average rainfall and low snow water volumes remain across much of the region with some improvement in Afghanistan due to enhanced precipitation from late February

October to early February precipitation conditions were well-below average throughout the region, with much of Iran, Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan experiencing less than 60% of average precipitation. Mid-February (Feb 16-25) conditions were 10-50 mm (>150%) above average in central and eastern Afghanistan, and average elsewhere, providing some reprieve from the dry conditions, although to-date season totals are still well-below average (Figure 1-left).

Storm activity improved snow water equivalent (SWE) conditions in portions of north, west, and southern Afghanistan, bringing March 3rd SWE totals to above-average levels in these areas (Figure 1-middle-left). SWE was well-below average in northeastern and central Afghanistan, eastern and northwestern Tajikistan, and central Kyrgyzstan. Regionally, SWE substantially increased from record-low values in February to still very low values that are similar to last year in early March. The storms reportedly killed 39 people and 14,000 livestock in Afghanistan, and 37 people in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Season-to-date conditions are quite concerning. In addition to the overall below-normal precipitation so far, temperatures have been several degrees warmer than average during the past several months, with recent storms being the exception. After cold temperatures during the next two weeks, models predict temperatures will most likely be warmer than normal. Regionally, higher winter and spring temperatures could melt snow more quickly, increasing the chances of early flooding and loss of seasonal snowpack. This would disturb agricultural activities and impact standing crops. Increased temperatures and humidity may also contribute to pests and disease in cropped areas. Irrigated crops in downstream areas with limited surface water for irrigation could also be impacted. Unfortunately, farmers in such areas are using groundwater as an easy and cheap substitute to the surface water.

There is some guarded optimism for above-normal precipitation in the next 1-3 months. Short-term, 15-day forecasts (Figure 1-middle-right) indicate expected above-average precipitation in the central and southern parts of the region, including 25-100mm positive anomalies in southeastern Iran, southeastern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The forecast also indicates a potential for excessively wet conditions (> 100 mm anomalies) in Jammu and Kashmir, raising concerns for potential flooding events. Elsewhere in the region, including central Iran, western Turkmenistan, central and western Tajikistan, and southern Pakistan precipitation is expected to be near average. Longer-term, 3-month forecasts show a fairly weak signal, but above-normal precipitation is expected in the east, including northeast Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, eastern Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan (Figure 1-right). This anticipated above-average precipitation and normal distribution of Spring (March to May) rains could positively impact Spring Wheat cultivation.

Figure 1. Recent rainfall anomaly, an outlook for October 1st to February 5th, a 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast, and a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast. The left panel is a CHC Early Estimate, which compare current precipitation totals to the 1981-2022 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. This panel shows the percent of average precipitation for Oct. 1st 2023 to Feb. 29th, 2024 (left), using CHIRPS Prelim for Feb. 1st to 28th. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-left: Snow water equivalent (SWE) anomaly for Mar. 3rd, 2024, compared to the 2001-2022 average for the same date, from NASA/USGS/FEWS NET. Middle-right: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from Feb. 28th, 2024, with values indicating how the forecast compares to the CHIRPS average for this period. Right: WMO probabilistic forecasts for MAM 2024 precipitation, based on models initialized in February, from the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

In southern Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion. Conditions are favourable for earlier planted crops in the vegetative to early generative stages due to adequate irrigation water supply, and harvesting activities are underway in some areas with good yields expected. In northern Southeast Asia, including Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Viet Nam, and the Philippines, crops are mainly in the seeding to early growing stage, and conditions are mixed as extremely low precipitation has resulted in drought damage in parts of Thailand and the Philippines. The region’s total planted area of dry-season rice may decrease compared to last year due to a shortage of irrigation water. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, conditions remain generally favourable.

In Indonesia, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion with a total planted area of 4.7 million hectares, which is 14.8 percent lower than the last wet season. Conditions are favourable for earlier planted crops in the vegetative to early generative stages due to adequate irrigation water, particularly in the north. Increased rainfall received from late January to mid-February also benefitted rice growth. February marks the second month of harvesting, and progress is slightly slower than the previous year but with good yields due to sufficient sunlight during the growing period. In Timor-Leste, maize planting is currently underway, and there is concern due to early season dryness between October and early January that caused some farmers to forego planting and negatively impacted crop development. Conversely, conditions are favourable for rice planting, which is expected to reach a near-average level. In Malaysia, planting of wet-season rice finished in February with a final planted area of approximately 360 thousand hectares, which is slightly lower than the last wet season. Conditions are favourable with an expected yield of 4.4 tons per hectare. Additionally, land preparation is underway for dry-season rice, and planting will begin in March with a national planting plan of approximately 264 thousand hectares. In Brunei, wet-season rice is growing under favourable conditions. About 30 percent of irrigated areas and 5 percent of rainfed areas have been harvested, and current dry conditions are conducive for harvesting work. In the Philippines, dry-season rice is in the young panicle forming to heading stage, and conditions have been downgraded to watch in most regions due to extremely low rainfall received since the end of 2023, except in Mindanao where conditions remain favourable. Harvesting outcomes may be lower than last year due to below-normal precipitation expected through the end of the season. In Thailand, planted area of dry-season rice is about 1.4 million hectares and is expected to decrease due to a lack of irrigation and natural water resources. However, the expectation of a high paddy price has prompted some farmers to expand their plantings beyond the national irrigation plan. Crops are mostly in the young panicle forming to grain filling stages, and concern remains due to the water shortages as well as high temperatures that could lead to damage during panicle development and spikelet formation. Both yield and production are expected to be lower than the previous year. In northern Viet Nam, planting of dry-season (winter-spring) rice is now underway, and planting progress is slower than in 2023 because of below-average rains in the north and centre as well as some southern areas. Conditions in these areas will need to be monitored closely for potential yield declines. In the south, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the early growing stage under favourable conditions. However, some provinces primarily in the Mekong River Delta were planted earlier and have harvested 92 thousand hectares. In Laos, planted area of dry-season rice has reached 90 percent of the national plan, with a final area estimated to be 97 thousand hectares and higher than last year. Crops are mainly in the seeding and tillering stages under favourable conditions due to rainfall received in all regions during the second half of January which provided sufficient water for irrigation. In Myanmar, planting of dry-season rice has reached 820 thousand hectares accounting for 78 percent of the national plan, and progress is slightly faster than last year due to higher availability of irrigation water and conducive weather. Additionally, over 80 percent of the total area designated for planting direct-seeded rice has been utilized. Crops are now in the tillering to panicle forming stages under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, planted area of dry-season rice is around 817 thousand hectares, which is 23 percent higher than last year due to a high paddy price. Crops are in the heading to harvesting stage under mostly favourable conditions, and 263 thousand hectares have been harvested with an estimated yield of 4.6 tons per hectare. However, a minor water deficit in some provinces during the second half of February damaged 0.73 percent of the planted area. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Maha season rice, which accounts for 70 percent of annual production and is mostly irrigated, as well as Maha season maize is now underway and will finalize in March, and conditions remain favourable throughout the country. In Nepal, wheat crops are in vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from mid-March while planting of main season maize is just beginning, and agro-climatic conditions remain favourable to support normal crop development. In Bangladesh, Boro season rice, winter season maize, and wheat crops are all in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from March, and overall conditions remain favourable. Land preparation is underway for summer season maize and Aus season rice crops, and planting will begin in March.